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The following article was published in the July/August 1997 FACILITIES ENGINEERING JOURNAL:

Facilities Rely Heavily on Predictive Maintenance
By William Johnson

In a significant number of plants, management has taken the attitude of "If it isn't broke, don't fix it." This is known as reactive maintenance, which has resulted in many unscheduled equipment failures. Today's facilities have no time for downtime and rely heavily on preventive and predictive maintenance practices.

Figure 1 shows maintenance costs for the general industrial machinery. This chart was developed around 1985 and has been adjusted to reflect the dollar amount in 1997. It shows the maintenance cost per horsepower for general industrial rotating machinery. There is a significant cost difference between a reactive and predictive maintenance program. The maintenance cost of a 100 HP blower would be:
• $2,600/year under a reactive maintenance program.
• $1,900/year under a preventive maintenance program.
• $ 1,100/year under a predictive maintenance program.

These numbers are very conservative in the actual savings achieved through a predictive maintenance program. They are significantly greater when downtime and reduced production are calculated into the equation to obtain the actual total saving.

Which program would you prefer? The maintenance costs per year for each of the different programs are as follows:
• $163,900/year under a reactive maintenance program.
• $119,800/year under a preventive maintenance program.
• $69,300/year under a predictive maintenance program.
(Typical savings for a plant with 200 motors of various horsepower sizes.)

It should be relatively easy to see that using predictive maintenance is very beneficial for improving facility standards and profits.

How do you start a predictive maintenance program? First, solicit management's support. You will need to define goals for this program. Determine what is the present acceptable failure rate or downtime allowed compared to where you would like to be. Also, you may consider what is the value added for your customers in better delivery and quality products. The question should then be asked, how much time and effort are you going to invest in this?

The cost and time for establishing your own vibration analysis may prove to be more than you are willing to spend. The very basic vibration equipment and accessories start at around $8,000-$10,000 and can exceed $50,000. Then add software at $20,000, plus training at $5,000. In addition, it usually takes a dedicated individual approximately three to five years to gain sufficient hands-on experience to use this equipment effectively.

The other way is to hire a consultant familiar with various predictive maintenance techniques in order to initiate a predictive maintenance program at your facility. This will save on the startup costs and time to acquire the necessary experience if your own maintenance staff did not have the familiarity with this type of equipment.

Once you have identified the areas of concern you can effectively schedule and implement a plan of action. The plan of action should include but is not limited to gathering as much information about the equipment from the manufacturer or equipment supplier as possible. This information relates to such things as equipment cross sectional views number of gear teeth, pump vanes, seats, materials of construction, bearings (size, style, manufacturer etc.), and process flow diagrams.

Next, establish what the facility's critical equipment is and then prioritize that equipment in a list that can be accommodated in a regular schedule biweekly, monthly or quarterly. The frequency of monitoring is dependent on equipment application, surrounding environment, horsepower, rpm, available spares and how critical it is to the operation.

SHOCK PULSE METER
Vibration monitoring is applicable to all types of rotating equipment. I use two different types of vibration equipment in monitoring the machine's condition. One is the Shock Pulse Meter (SPM), which is designed to filter out all machine noise except noise generated by bearings going over imperfect bearing surfaces. This was one of the first pieces of testing equipment that I used over 18 years ago in determining bearing condition. If there was any bearing damage it would, indicate so. This piece of equipment in experienced hands can be very reliable method of detecting roller bearing damage. I have achieved a 99.999 percent reliability rating with this -equipment and could even predict when catastrophic failure would occur within a specific time frame with surprising accuracy. Roller bearings may be at the heart of most equipment, but there are other factors and conditions that can, cause catastrophic failure.

FAST FOURIER TRANSFORM
The other piece of vibration equipment is the full spectrum vibration analyzer - fast fourier transform (FFT). This equipmentt is relatively (10-15 years) new to the general industry and is ideal for picking up low-frequency vibration that usually occurrs in industrial applications. The newer analyzers are very portable, battery operated and easier to use than older frequency analyzers that were either permanently installed or not sufficiently rugged enough to be used in industrial environments. This piece of equipment is used to identify imbalance, misalignment, journal bearing damage, gear damage, cracking, mechanical looseness, ball bearing damage, bent shafts, some electrical conditions, noise, mechanical rubbing and structural resonance frequency.

Obviously this equipment is considerably more sophisticated and requires more training plus hands-on experience in the field. The FFT and SPM equipment is what I consider the necessary edge needed to bring up standards needed for maintaining facilities in the 21st Century. Other test equipment such as thermography, thickness measurement meters, along with voltage frequency analyzers also help to define root cause of the problem.

Vibration analysis is used to perform mechanical diagnostics. Using SPM and FFT instrumentation the analysis can identify most mechanical problems. The other methods of temperature, pressure, flow, and oil analyses were used prior to vibration analysis and still can be effective today in providing additional. information to define the root cause of a problem.

The PdM cycle begins with periodic monitoring if the measurement exceeds the limit; further analysis is required and a recommendation for repair is discussed with facility's staff. Once the repair is completed the equipment is tested again to make sure the repair was successful. This is usually the case and the equipment is then periodically measured. If not, further analysis is done to identify the problem and corrective action is taken until measurement limit is satisfied. In my 20 years of experience, this is where the real savings are made. and a significant improvement to equipment reliability is achieved. In other words, paying attention to details counts.

DOCUMENTATION
Documentation of PdM findings and savings is a very useful management tool. This is where we identify the actual value of predictive maintenance programs and it can occur within the first year. However, greater benefits are usually realized after two years.

This is where I identify predicted machine faults through trend and analysis charts, the problem severity and list the recommended actions in order of priority. In addition, a list of actual faults along with maintenance costs is provided. This is used to determine maintenance savings.

The following examples are typical results achieved using vibration analysis in predictive maintenance programs:

Example 1:
Equipment: (3) 25 HP Paper Cutter Blowers
Problem: Hot bearings caused paper dust to catch on fire on an average frequency of twice per year.
Solution: Provide a continuous bearing monitoring system and constant lubrication to bearings.
Results: No fires for 16 years and $115,000 per year in savings and increased production.
Cost to Benefit Analysis of Example 1
• Anticipated savings per chart (Maint. Costs To General Industrial Machin ery) = $2,160/year
• Realized savings = $115,000/year
• Implementation cost = $10,000 one-time charge
• Monitoring cost = $400/year

Example 2
Equipment: (6) 50 HP Hammer Mills
Problem: Short bearing life -Three months average. Lubrication failure thought to be the cause.
Solution: Specified bearing fit to shaft. Replace shaft if bearing surface did not meet specifications.
Results: Improved bearing life from three months to two-plus years savings = $7,000/year.
Cost to Benefit Analysis of Example 2
• Anticipated savings per chart (Maint. Costs to General Industrial. Machinery) = $3,600/year
• Realized savings = $7,000/year
• Implementation cost = $150/unit or $600 total
• Monitoring cost = $400/year

SUMMARY
The key benefits of a predictive maintenance program is:
Plant reliability is improved so that unplanned shutdowns are a very rare occurrence. This is especially true after two years with this type of program.
Reduced maintenance costs are achieved because labor and material are scheduled as machine condition indicates. This reduces overtime and material inventory requirements.
Improved production efficiency by operating production equipment without unplanned shutdowns. Scheduling of equipment repairs when it has the least effect on production and shipping schedules.
Improved equipment life cycle cost by scheduling equipment replacement when machine condition indicates that replacement is needed. Increased profits are achieved through better utilization of facility resources and smoother running operation.

William E. Johnson is a consultant at Engineering Concepts, LLC, a maintenance consulting firm in West Hartford, Connecticut, that provides creative solutions to today's problems.

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